How likely is your conspiracy theory?

"It is common to dismiss conspiracy theories and their proponents out of hand, but I wanted to take the opposite approach, to see how these conspiracies might be possible,"
- Dr David Robert Grimes
The purpose of this site is to let people better understand just how unlikely large conspiracy theories are. The more people involved the more likely a conspiracy is to come to light.
The below equation is based on the initial research of Dr David Robert Grimes. It calculates the maximum amount of time it would take until a conspiracy should come to light based on x number of people.

How to use

To use this tool first calculate all of the people who would know about the conspericy. Example:

Climate-change fraud

Involved Group Name Employed Total
American Geo-Physical Union 62,000
NASA (2016) 58,000
American academy for Advancement of Science 120,000
Royal Society Fellows 16,000
European Physical Society 120,000
Published Climate Scientists ≈29,083
Total ≈405,000

Then use this total in the calculator below